DataGreat, a platform specializing in tourism intelligence, has unveiled a scenario analysis examining potential repercussions on Turkish tourism amid a hypothetical prolonged conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. Conducted by the platform’s founder, Alper Tekin, the analysis utilized the Crisis Impact Simulator, integrating data from the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025. As Türkiye’s third-largest export sector, tourism plays a crucial role in the national economy, contributing over 11% to the GDP and directly supporting around three million jobs, as indicated by WTTC figures.
Türkiye finds itself structurally vulnerable due to its proximity to the potential conflict zone, with six of its top ten inbound tourism markets, including Russia, Germany, and the United Kingdom, located within approximately 3,000 kilometers of the Iran–Israel axis. The Crisis Impact Simulator explores three scenarios. In Scenario A, regional escalation could lead to disruptions in airspace, stricter sanctions, or rerouted travel paths due to insurance constraints, primarily impacting European leisure travel demand. Scenario B considers a significant drop in Russian tourists, Türkiye’s largest source of inbound travelers, possibly declining by 20-35% due to sanctions, payment issues, and currency pressure, affecting regions like Antalya and Muğla. Scenario C assesses a potential volatility shock in the Turkish lira against the US dollar, which could temporarily boost tourism receipts but dampen domestic leisure spending.
Tekin emphasizes that the analysis is meant as a planning tool rather than a forecast, allowing stakeholders in the tourism industry to anticipate and prepare for potential developments. The platform enables destination management organizations and operators to simulate these scenarios in advance of actual events, rather than reacting post-occurrence. Detailed simulator outputs, including vulnerabilities, mitigation strategies, and indicators to watch, are available to accredited media upon request. Additionally, DataGreat’s Risk Radar module provides weekly risk assessments for 42 countries across six tourism-related categories.
DataGreat’s suite of products, built on the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset, covers 42 countries and includes a Persona Builder, Risk Radar, Campaign Brief Generator, and the Crisis Impact Simulator. The platform is operated by Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş. and is based in Edirne, Türkiye. The company focuses on providing comprehensive data insights and tools for the tourism sector, underscoring the crucial intersection of tourism and geopolitical developments.